The Oscar Nominations…

Best Picture likely to win: 12 Years a Slave

The demographics of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences tend toward the elderly, and there have been reports of grumbling within its ranks that Steve McQueen’s film is “too brutal”. But whatever misgivings members may have, those are not likely to prevent the searing tale of Solomon Northup from taking the top prize – the Academy will not want to be seen as “out of touch” by not recognising a landmark depiction of a historical tragedy. Just as they awarded another empathetic masterpiece 20 years ago, Schindler’s List, they’ll give it 12 Years a Slave.

Worthy but likely to lose: Her

Spike Jonze’s film is both brainy and warm, socially critical and deeply humane. But the Academy has never cared for science-fiction and its elderly, technology-averse voters will be completely put off by the concept of a human/computer romance no matter how delicately it has been realised.